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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 22%, followed by By October 31 at 8.5%, By September 30 at 1.1%. The market has $42.7K in total volume and $798 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 22% | — | $4.8K |
| By October 31 | 8.5% | -2.5 pts | $25.8K |
| By September 30 | 1.1% | -0.5 pts | $9.1K |
| By September 20 | 0.2% | — | $2.9K |
Total volume $42.7K · 24h volume $798 · Liquidity $47.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.
"Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Saudi Arabia, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.
The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.
In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Saudi Arabia is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Middle East odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 22%, followed by By October 31 at 8.5%, By September 30 at 1.1%. The market has $42.7K in total volume and $798 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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