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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 3.4%. The market has $22.12M in total volume and $5.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 3.4% | -0.1 pts | $2.51M |
| By March 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $8.55M |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $6.62M |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $1.81M |
| By April 30 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $1.64M |
| By January 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $547.3K |
| By February 28 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $451.4K |
Total volume $22.12M · 24h volume $5.3K · Liquidity $136.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Israel odds · Middle East odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 3.4%. The market has $22.12M in total volume and $5.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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