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Updated October 20, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 28, 2026
As of October 20, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 14.5% (No 85.5%), with $21.4K traded in total and $10.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14.5% | -6.0 pts | $21.4K |
| No | 85.5% | +6.0 pts | — |
Total volume $21.4K · 24h volume $10.9K · Liquidity $40.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following groups of parties wins a combined total of 61 seats or more in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election: (a) The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu; or (b) Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 20, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 14.5% (No 85.5%), with $21.4K traded in total and $10.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 28, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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