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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 28, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 20-24 at 36.5%, followed by 25-29 at 24%, <20 at 20.9%. The market has $204.5K in total volume and $397 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-24 | 36.5% | -1.0 pts | $25.2K |
| 25-29 | 24% | — | $45.4K |
| <20 | 20.9% | +0.6 pts | $58.9K |
| 30-34 | 11.5% | — | $59.3K |
| 35+ | 3.0% | +0.1 pts | $15.8K |
Total volume $204.5K · 24h volume $397 · Liquidity $76.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 20-24 ■ 25-29 ■ <20 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 20-24 at 36.5%, followed by 25-29 at 24%, <20 at 20.9%. The market has $204.5K in total volume and $397 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 28, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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