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Updated October 19, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 27, 2026
As of October 19, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 6-7% at 33%, followed by 7-8% at 27.5%, 5-6% at 25%. The market has $21.4K in total volume and $3.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-7% | 33% | -1.0 pts | $1.0K |
| 7-8% | 27.5% | -16.5 pts | $633 |
| 5-6% | 25% | -3.5 pts | $612 |
| 8%+ | 19.2% | +8.0 pts | $266 |
| <5% | 11.2% | -2.2 pts | $18.9K |
Total volume $21.4K · 24h volume $3.2K · Liquidity $34.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 6-7% ■ 7-8% ■ 5-6% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 19, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 6-7% at 33%, followed by 7-8% at 27.5%, 5-6% at 25%. The market has $21.4K in total volume and $3.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 27, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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