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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: April 1, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is March 31 at 18%, followed by December 31 at 6.0%. The market has $1.41M in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 18% | +3.5 pts | $136 |
| December 31 | 6.0% | — | $534.9K |
| June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $481.8K |
| July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.8 pts | $251.9K |
| August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $106.6K |
| September 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $20.0K |
| October 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.6 pts | $10.8K |
| June 15 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.4 pts | $883 |
Total volume $1.41M · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $23.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ March 31 ■ December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Israel odds · Middle East odds · Politics odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is March 31 at 18%, followed by December 31 at 6.0%. The market has $1.41M in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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