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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: February 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 3.0%+ at 70%, followed by 2.8-3.0% at 6.8%, 2.4-2.6% at 6.3%. The market has $32.2K in total volume and $254 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0%+ | 70% | -4.9 pts | $13.9K |
| 2.8-3.0% | 6.8% | -10.0 pts | $8.8K |
| 2.4-2.6% | 6.3% | +1.9 pts | $2.6K |
| 2.6-2.8% | 5.1% | +0.1 pts | $2.6K |
| 2.0-2.2% | 1.8% | +0.1 pts | $1.7K |
| <2.0% | 1.1% | — | $1.4K |
| 2.2-2.4% | 0.1% | — | $1.3K |
Total volume $32.2K · 24h volume $254 · Liquidity $3.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 3.0%+ ■ 2.8-3.0% ■ 2.4-2.6% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Fed & Interest Rates odds · US Economy odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 3.0%+ at 70%, followed by 2.8-3.0% at 6.8%, 2.4-2.6% at 6.3%. The market has $32.2K in total volume and $254 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is February 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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