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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: October 16, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 15 at 92%, followed by By October 14 at 87%, By October 13 at 85%. The market has $36.9K in total volume and $36.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 15 | 92% | +6.0 pts | $2.1K |
| By October 14 | 87% | +2.0 pts | $744 |
| By October 13 | 85% | — | $1.4K |
| By October 12 | 77.5% | -2.0 pts | $2.9K |
| By October 11 | 75% | +3.0 pts | $2.0K |
| By October 10 | 69.5% | +7.0 pts | $3.1K |
| By October 9 | 45% | -4.0 pts | $3.8K |
| By October 8 | 25.5% | -15.5 pts | $2.1K |
| By October 7 | 11.5% | -10.0 pts | $13.7K |
| By October 6 | 2.0% | -13.0 pts | $5.1K |
Total volume $36.9K · 24h volume $36.7K · Liquidity $26.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 15 ■ By October 14 ■ By October 13 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos are scheduled to begin a hardcore Minecraft marathon on October 5, 2026. Their goal, as of market creation, is to defeat the Ender Dragon in a hardcore Minecraft world without any of the three dying.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos defeat the Ender Dragon live on stream, as accepted by them as a successful completion of their challenge, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only events occurring while at least one of the three players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify.
If the challenge is cancelled, abandoned before completion, or delayed to a point after the specified date, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the challenge on Jynxzi's, StableRonaldo's, and Los Pollos's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Pop Culture odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 15 at 92%, followed by By October 14 at 87%, By October 13 at 85%. The market has $36.9K in total volume and $36.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 16, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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