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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: February 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Avengers: Doomsday at 49.5%, followed by Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 49.5%, Dune: Messiah at <0.1%. The market has $2.25M in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avengers: Doomsday | 49.5% | +0.5 pts | $386.0K |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 49.5% | +2.0 pts | $216.9K |
| Dune: Messiah | <0.1% | — | $168.2K |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | <0.1% | — | $74.8K |
| Michael (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $601.0K |
| The Odyssey (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $229.6K |
| Toy Story 5 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $220.0K |
| Wuthering Heights (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $122.9K |
| Project Hail Mary (settled) | 0.0% | — | $91.5K |
| Scream 7 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $67.6K |
| Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $47.2K |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (settled) | 0.0% | — | $21.7K |
Total volume $2.25M · 24h volume $1.6K · Liquidity $107.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Avengers: Doomsday ■ Spider-Man: Brand New Day ■ Dune: Messiah · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Movies & Box Office odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Avengers: Doomsday at 49.5%, followed by Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 49.5%, Dune: Messiah at <0.1%. The market has $2.25M in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is February 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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