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Updated October 7, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: December 1, 2026
As of October 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 60-89 at 34.5%, followed by 90-119 at 23%, 120-149 at 14.5%. The market has $23.8K in total volume and $22.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60-89 | 34.5% | +19.0 pts | $7.6K |
| 90-119 | 23% | +7.0 pts | $2.3K |
| 120-149 | 14.5% | -9.0 pts | $2.5K |
| 180-209 | 11% | +5.0 pts | $2.2K |
| 150-179 | 8.5% | -23.0 pts | $2.5K |
| 210-239 | 7.9% | +2.8 pts | $1.6K |
| 300+ | 1.8% | -2.7 pts | $1.3K |
| 240-269 | 1.5% | -3.7 pts | $610 |
| 270-299 | 0.5% | -3.5 pts | $445 |
| 30-59 | 0.4% | -4.0 pts | $1.0K |
| <30 | 0.2% | -0.3 pts | $1.7K |
Total volume $23.8K · 24h volume $22.0K · Liquidity $20.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 60-89 ■ 90-119 ■ 120-149 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos are scheduled to begin streaming a hardcore Minecraft marathon on October 5, 2026. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon in a hardcore Minecraft world.
This market will resolve according to the number of combined Minecraft deaths across all three players during the entire marathon.
The number of deaths will be measured as the final value displayed on the cumulative in-game death counter on Jynxzi’s official broadcast on Twitch at the time Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos complete or end the marathon. If Jynxzi’s counter is not available at that time, the number of deaths will be measured as the final value displayed on the cumulative in-game death counter on StableRonaldo’s official broadcast on Twitch, and if that counter is also not available, on Los Pollos’s official broadcast on Twitch. The value displayed on the counter will be used regardless of how it is calculated, so long as it represents cumulative deaths occurring across the marathon. It will not matter whether Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos complete the aforementioned challenge, nor whether they modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective.
If none of these counters are available at the specified time, or if a counter becomes clearly erroneous or clearly does not represent the cumulative number of in-game Minecraft deaths during the entire marathon, this market will resolve according to the most recent value displayed on the cumulative in-game death counters, according to the aforementioned hierarchy, that accurately represents the cumulative number of in-game Minecraft deaths during the marathon.
This market will remain open until the marathon is declared complete, abandoned, or otherwise finally ended by Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, or Los Pollos, regardless of whether the challenge is completed.
If the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve according to the number on the counter at that point. If the marathon is still ongoing as of November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the value displayed on the counters at that time, according to the aforementioned hierarchy.
The resolution source for this market will be the in-game death counters displayed on Jynxzi’s, StableRonaldo’s, and Los Pollos’s official broadcasts on Twitch and YouTube according to the aforementioned hierarchy.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Pop Culture odds
As of October 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 60-89 at 34.5%, followed by 90-119 at 23%, 120-149 at 14.5%. The market has $23.8K in total volume and $22.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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