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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Goldman Sachs at 55.5%, followed by Morgan Stanley at 26.5%, Deutsche Bank at 0.2%. The market has $56.2K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 55.5% | -22.0 pts | $15.5K |
| Morgan Stanley | 26.5% | +11.0 pts | $10.2K |
| Deutsche Bank | 0.2% | — | $9.4K |
| JPMorgan | 0.2% | — | $4.3K |
| Barclays | 0.2% | — | $3.9K |
| UBS | 0.2% | — | $3.8K |
| Wells Fargo | 0.2% | — | $3.4K |
| Citigroup | 0.2% | — | $2.9K |
| Bank of America | 0.2% | — | $2.7K |
Total volume $56.2K · 24h volume $1.2K · Liquidity $14.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Goldman Sachs ■ Morgan Stanley ■ Deutsche Bank · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: IPOs odds · OpenAI odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Goldman Sachs at 55.5%, followed by Morgan Stanley at 26.5%, Deutsche Bank at 0.2%. The market has $56.2K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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