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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Amal Movement (Amal) at 1.1%, followed by Hezbollah (Hezb) at 0.2%, Lebanese Forces (LF) at <0.1%. The market has $677.4K in total volume and $7 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amal Movement (Amal) | 1.1% | +0.1 pts | $63.9K |
| Hezbollah (Hezb) | 0.2% | — | $56.4K |
| Lebanese Forces (LF) | <0.1% | — | $169.1K |
| Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) | <0.1% | — | $80.5K |
| Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) | <0.1% | — | $55.0K |
| National Dialogue Party (NDP) | <0.1% | — | $47.4K |
| Dignity Movement (DM) | <0.1% | — | $29.2K |
| Mada Party (Mada) | <0.1% | — | $28.1K |
| Khatt Ahmar | <0.1% | — | $14.2K |
| Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana) | <0.1% | — | $13.8K |
| Taqaddom Party | <0.1% | — | $11.8K |
| Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath) | <0.1% | — | $10.7K |
| Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) | <0.1% | — | $10.6K |
| ReLebanon | <0.1% | — | $9.8K |
| National Liberal Party (NLP) | <0.1% | — | $9.6K |
8 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $677.4K · 24h volume $7 · Liquidity $270.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Amal Movement (Amal) ■ Hezbollah (Hezb) ■ Lebanese Forces (LF) · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament..
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Middle East odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Amal Movement (Amal) at 1.1%, followed by Hezbollah (Hezb) at 0.2%, Lebanese Forces (LF) at <0.1%. The market has $677.4K in total volume and $7 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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