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Updated October 9, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 9, 2026 at 16:52 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 5.2%, followed by By November 30 at 2.5%, By October 31 at 0.9%. The market has $27.0K in total volume and $1.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 5.2% | +1.5 pts | $4.0K |
| By November 30 | 2.5% | +0.1 pts | $1.7K |
| By October 31 | 0.9% | — | $8.3K |
| By September 30 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $13.0K |
Total volume $27.0K · 24h volume $1.7K · Liquidity $28.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By November 30 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Fed & Interest Rates odds · Politics odds
As of October 9, 2026 at 16:52 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 5.2%, followed by By November 30 at 2.5%, By October 31 at 0.9%. The market has $27.0K in total volume and $1.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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