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Updated October 1, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 16, 2026
As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 15 at 36.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.2%. The market has $22.1K in total volume and $5.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 15 | 36.5% | +10.5 pts | $3.3K |
| By September 30 | 0.2% | -0.2 pts | $18.8K |
Total volume $22.1K · 24h volume $5.6K · Liquidity $46.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 15 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Each market in this event will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value is higher than Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and 12:00 AM ET on the day after that market's listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values.
Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing before 12:00 AM ET on the day after that market's listed date, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point.
If no hourly odds values have been published for both Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro between market creation and 12:00 AM ET on the day after that market's listed date, this market will resolve to "No".
If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No".
If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/brazil-president-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 15 at 36.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.2%. The market has $22.1K in total volume and $5.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 16, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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