Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Updated September 30, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 5, 2026
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is October 5 at 13.5%, followed by October 3 at 3.9%. The market has $20.0K in total volume and $7.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 5 | 13.5% | -4.0 pts | $8.4K |
| October 3 | 3.9% | -9.7 pts | $11.6K |
Total volume $20.0K · 24h volume $7.9K · Liquidity $35.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ October 5 ■ October 3 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
Each market in this event will resolve to "Lula" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value is higher than Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on that market's listed date.
Each market in this event will resolve to "Bolsonaro" if Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value is higher than Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on that market's listed date.
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's and Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", this market will resolve 50-50.
An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).
If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after that market's listed date for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point.
If no hourly odds value is published for either of the options between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option which resolves "Yes". If the winning outcome is neither listed option, this market will resolve 50-50.
If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market …
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 30, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is October 5 at 13.5%, followed by October 3 at 3.9%. The market has $20.0K in total volume and $7.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 5, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/lula-or-bolsonaro-favored/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Lula or Bolsonaro favored? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/lula-or-bolsonaro-favored/">Lula or Bolsonaro favored? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/lula-or-bolsonaro-favored.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Lula or Bolsonaro favored? — Polymarket odds”, September 30, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/lula-or-bolsonaro-favored/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/lula-or-bolsonaro-favored/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/lula-or-bolsonaro-favored/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/lula-or-bolsonaro-favored.svg" alt="Lula or Bolsonaro favored? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog