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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 4, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 64% (No 36%), with $26.9K traded in total and $661 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 64% | +9.5 pts | $26.9K |
| No | 36% | -9.5 pts | — |
Total volume $26.9K · 24h volume $661 · Liquidity $1.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) participates in a televised Brazilian presidential debate by October 3, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, Lula must speak at least once in a debate with at least one other registered Brazilian presidential candidate present, televised live.
Virtual live participation will qualify. Prerecorded appearances will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 64% (No 36%), with $26.9K traded in total and $661 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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