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Updated October 5, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: October 31, 2026
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No release by October 31 at 34%, followed by October 7 at 16.8%, October 21 at 11.2%. The market has $21.6K in total volume and $1.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No release by October 31 | 34% | +0.5 pts | $7.1K |
| October 7 | 16.8% | +13.2 pts | $147 |
| October 21 | 11.2% | +2.2 pts | $802 |
| October 14 | 10.8% | +2.2 pts | $186 |
| October 8 | 8.0% | +4.0 pts | $91 |
| October 9 | 7.7% | +0.1 pts | $76 |
| October 28 | 7.5% | -3.0 pts | $4.2K |
| October 20 | 5.1% | -0.2 pts | $2.5K |
| October 15 | 4.5% | — | $116 |
| October 11 | 4.2% | — | $86 |
| October 31 | 4.2% | — | $1.1K |
| October 23 | 4.2% | -0.3 pts | $611 |
| October 12 | 4.0% | — | $96 |
| October 24 | 3.6% | -5.0 pts | $86 |
| October 5 | 3.6% | +0.1 pts | $113 |
17 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $21.6K · 24h volume $1.9K · Liquidity $22.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No release by October 31 ■ October 7 ■ October 21 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's "Watermelon" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No release by October 31 at 34%, followed by October 7 at 16.8%, October 21 at 11.2%. The market has $21.6K in total volume and $1.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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