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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 2.8% (No 97.2%), with $20.4K traded in total and $999 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.8% | +0.4 pts | $20.4K |
| No | 97.2% | -0.4 pts | — |
Total volume $20.4K · 24h volume $999 · Liquidity $813. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Big Tech odds · Elon Musk odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 2.8% (No 97.2%), with $20.4K traded in total and $999 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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