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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: December 1, 2026
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is November 18 at 22.8%, followed by No release by November 30 at 21%, November 10 at 20.2%. The market has $29.1K in total volume and $708 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 18 | 22.8% | -2.9 pts | $363 |
| No release by November 30 | 21% | -16.5 pts | $5.1K |
| November 10 | 20.2% | -1.5 pts | $1.0K |
| November 22 | 15.6% | -7.2 pts | $409 |
| November 11 | 13.5% | +0.5 pts | $363 |
| November 19 | 11.2% | +5.0 pts | $374 |
| November 25 | 9.6% | +6.4 pts | $469 |
| November 30 | 8.9% | -4.8 pts | $930 |
| November 12 | 5.2% | — | $345 |
| November 20 | 4.2% | — | $604 |
| November 14 | 4.2% | +0.1 pts | $384 |
| November 27 | 4.2% | -7.9 pts | $336 |
| November 9 | 3.6% | — | $834 |
| November 13 | 3.6% | -12.2 pts | $335 |
| November 17 | 3.2% | +0.1 pts | $320 |
17 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $29.1K · 24h volume $708 · Liquidity $40.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ November 18 ■ No release by November 30 ■ November 10 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Anthropic odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is November 18 at 22.8%, followed by No release by November 30 at 21%, November 10 at 20.2%. The market has $29.1K in total volume and $708 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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