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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Top 10 at 91.5%, followed by Top 5 at 87.5%, Top 3 at 83.5%. The market has $33.3K in total volume and $472 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 10 | 91.5% | +0.2 pts | $12.8K |
| Top 5 | 87.5% | — | $3.9K |
| Top 3 | 83.5% | — | $7.2K |
| Top 1 | 28.5% | -28.0 pts | $9.4K |
Total volume $33.3K · 24h volume $472 · Liquidity $16.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Top 10 ■ Top 5 ■ Top 3 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None), in the "Models" view, and with no other filters applied will be used to resolve this market. A model debuts within the specified top ranks if its displayed rank at the check time is equal to or better than the specified rank (for example, a displayed rank of 4 is within the top 5 and the top 10). This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of the model's score, rank spread or confidence intervals, ranks shown under other adjustments, filters, or categories, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. A model is considered to first appear on the leaderboard on the first calendar date (ET) on which it is displayed with a rank and without the "AutoEval" label; only such ranks will be considered. An entry listed under a preliminary, code, or placeholder name is considered newly added on the first date it is displayed under a name satisfying the model specification clause above; a renamed entry's first appearance under a qualifying name counts as its addition to the leaderboard. Each separately listed entry, including reasoning or thinking-level variants of the same model, is a distinct model for the purposes of this market, and the first qualifying entry added governs resolution.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-ranking model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a qualifying model is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, that appearance will not qualify; if the model is subsequently displayed …
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Anthropic odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Top 10 at 91.5%, followed by Top 5 at 87.5%, Top 3 at 83.5%. The market has $33.3K in total volume and $472 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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