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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: April 19, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Marine Le Pen at 89.5%, followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 48.5%, Other at 32.5%. The market has $539.3K in total volume and $5.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 89.5% | -0.5 pts | $32.5K |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 48.5% | -2.5 pts | $35.2K |
| Other | 32.5% | +0.5 pts | $112 |
| Édouard Philippe | 18.5% | -4.0 pts | $16.4K |
| David Lisnard | 17.9% | +0.1 pts | $244.5K |
| Jordan Bardella | 7.0% | -0.5 pts | $25.0K |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 6.4% | — | $17.0K |
| Gabriel Attal | 5.6% | — | $9.2K |
| Bruno Retailleau | 5.1% | — | $4.4K |
| Sarah Knafo | 4.5% | -1.1 pts | $8.2K |
| Clémence Guetté | 4.5% | +0.1 pts | $3.9K |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 4.2% | -1.8 pts | $1.7K |
| François Hollande | 4.1% | -0.4 pts | $20.7K |
| Manuel Bompard | 4.1% | — | $7.3K |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 3.9% | -1.5 pts | $3.8K |
22 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $539.3K · 24h volume $5.6K · Liquidity $445.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Marine Le Pen ■ Jean-Luc Mélenchon · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · France odds · Politics odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Marine Le Pen at 89.5%, followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 48.5%, Other at 32.5%. The market has $539.3K in total volume and $5.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 19, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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