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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 80.5%, followed by By February 28, 2027 at 66%, By December 31, 2026 at 31%. The market has $195.6K in total volume and $32.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By June 30, 2027 | 80.5% | +5.0 pts | $35.0K |
| By February 28, 2027 | 66% | — | $34.1K |
| By December 31, 2026 | 31% | +1.5 pts | $50.6K |
| By November 30, 2026 | 10.5% | +1.7 pts | $76.0K |
Total volume $195.6K · 24h volume $32.5K · Liquidity $89.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By June 30, 2027 ■ By February 28, 2027 ■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe.
Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Israel odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 80.5%, followed by By February 28, 2027 at 66%, By December 31, 2026 at 31%. The market has $195.6K in total volume and $32.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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