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Updated October 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: March 1, 2027
As of October 7, 2026 at 17:24 UTC, the leading outcome is No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 44.5%, followed by Tally Gotliv at 11%, Orit Farkash-Hacohen at 10.5%. The market has $20.8K in total volume and $2.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Next Minister by Feb 28 | 44.5% | +12.5 pts | $7.9K |
| Tally Gotliv | 11% | +1.0 pts | $1.5K |
| Orit Farkash-Hacohen | 10.5% | -6.0 pts | $966 |
| Ofir Katz | 8.5% | — | $2.6K |
| Gilad Kariv | 8.3% | -7.3 pts | $1.2K |
| Gideon Sa’ar | 7.5% | -0.5 pts | $576 |
| Oded Forer | 5.3% | -1.4 pts | $2.6K |
| Amir Ohana | 3.9% | — | $538 |
| Yariv Levin | 3.5% | -1.5 pts | $1.5K |
| Simcha Rothman | 1.3% | — | $704 |
| Ayelet Shaked | 0.5% | — | $722 |
Total volume $20.8K · 24h volume $2.4K · Liquidity $158.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No Next Minister by Feb 28 ■ Tally Gotliv ■ Orit Farkash-Hacohen · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.
To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Justice will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.
The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Justice” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.
If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Justice are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.
If no such Minister of Justice assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Israel odds · Middle East odds · Politics odds
As of October 7, 2026 at 17:24 UTC, the leading outcome is No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 44.5%, followed by Tally Gotliv at 11%, Orit Farkash-Hacohen at 10.5%. The market has $20.8K in total volume and $2.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is March 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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