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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By March 31, 2027 at 96%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 86%, By December 15, 2026 at 64%. The market has $25.7K in total volume and $1.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By March 31, 2027 | 96% | +0.5 pts | $5.4K |
| By December 31, 2026 | 86% | +1.5 pts | $10.6K |
| By December 15, 2026 | 64% | +1.5 pts | $189 |
| By November 30, 2026 | 52.5% | +14.0 pts | $3.4K |
| By November 15, 2026 | 25.5% | -5.5 pts | $395 |
| By October 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $5.7K |
Total volume $25.7K · 24h volume $1.5K · Liquidity $27.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By March 31, 2027 ■ By December 31, 2026 ■ By December 15, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if an actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor in a starring role of a feature film by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By March 31, 2027 at 96%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 86%, By December 15, 2026 at 64%. The market has $25.7K in total volume and $1.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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