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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 3, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is John Thune at 87.5%, followed by John Barrasso at 3.2%, Tom Cotton at 1.3%. The market has $38.7K in total volume and $6.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Thune | 87.5% | +2.5 pts | $18.2K |
| John Barrasso | 3.2% | -1.6 pts | $4.2K |
| Tom Cotton | 1.3% | -0.2 pts | $1.0K |
| Patty Murray | 0.7% | -0.1 pts | $985 |
| Rick Scott | 0.5% | +0.2 pts | $850 |
| Mark Kelly | 0.4% | — | $974 |
| Chuck Schumer | 0.1% | — | $10.9K |
| Cory Booker | <0.1% | — | $958 |
| Brian Schatz | <0.1% | — | $608 |
Total volume $38.7K · 24h volume $6.5K · Liquidity $82.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ John Thune ■ John Barrasso ■ Tom Cotton · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the individual who is chosen to be the first Senate Minority Leader in the Congress that convenes after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election.
If no Senate Minority Leader is chosen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source will be official information from the United States Senate or official announcements from the caucus organization of the relevant party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is John Thune at 87.5%, followed by John Barrasso at 3.2%, Tom Cotton at 1.3%. The market has $38.7K in total volume and $6.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 3, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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