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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: October 1, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 2 at 45.5%, followed by 3 at 40.2%, 4+ at 13.7%. The market has $61.2K in total volume and $8.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 45.5% | +15.5 pts | $6.3K |
| 3 | 40.2% | -6.0 pts | $3.8K |
| 4+ | 13.7% | -5.9 pts | $6.3K |
| <1 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $23.3K |
| 1 (settled) | 0.0% | -2.6 pts | $21.4K |
Total volume $61.2K · 24h volume $8.0K · Liquidity $55.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 2 ■ 3 ■ 4+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 2 at 45.5%, followed by 3 at 40.2%, 4+ at 13.7%. The market has $61.2K in total volume and $8.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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