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Updated September 29, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 29, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 3.9% (No 96.2%), with $39.5K traded in total and $621 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.9% | — | $39.5K |
| No | 96.2% | — | — |
Total volume $39.5K · 24h volume $621 · Liquidity $6.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Middle East odds · US Economy odds · Oil & Commodities odds · Politics odds
As of September 29, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 3.9% (No 96.2%), with $39.5K traded in total and $621 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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