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Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner — Polymarket Odds

Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: July 1, 2027

As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is The Odyssey at 49%, followed by La Bola Negra at 31.5%, Dune: Part Three at 11.5%. The market has $239.8K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeProbability24h changeVolume
The Odyssey49%
+0.5 pts$137.2K
La Bola Negra31.5%
$12.1K
Dune: Part Three11.5%
$18.9K
Wild Horse Nine2.9%
-0.9 pts$8.8K
The Debut2.1%
+0.1 pts$6.4K
Project Hail Mary1.7%
-0.1 pts$4.8K
Fjord1.4%
-0.2 pts$5.0K
Digger0.9%
-2.0 pts$12.7K
The Invite0.7%
-0.1 pts$4.7K
Behemoth!0.6%
$4.8K
All of a Sudden0.2%
$4.5K
The Social Reckoning0.2%
$2.3K
The Drama0.2%
$1.6K
Josephine0.1%
$1.7K
Tony<0.1%
$3.6K

7 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.

Total volume $239.8K · 24h volume $1.2K · Liquidity $216.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.

30-day price history

0%25%50%75%100%Aug 25Sep 24

The Odyssey La Bola Negra Dune: Part Three · 30-day price history (12-hour points)

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How this market resolves

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner?

As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is The Odyssey at 49%, followed by La Bola Negra at 31.5%, Dune: Part Three at 11.5%. The market has $239.8K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.

When does the Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner market end?

The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.

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