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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 11%, followed by By November 30 at 3.7%. The market has $649.3K in total volume and $771 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 11% | -1.5 pts | $251.3K |
| By November 30 | 3.7% | -0.5 pts | $34.3K |
| By October 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.2 pts | $278.1K |
| By October 15 (settled) | 0.0% | -4.3 pts | $83.5K |
| By September 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $2.1K |
Total volume $649.3K · 24h volume $771 · Liquidity $28.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By November 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.
“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Middle East odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 11%, followed by By November 30 at 3.7%. The market has $649.3K in total volume and $771 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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