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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: December 8, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is <275mm at 98.2%, followed by 375-400mm at 1.4%, 550mm+ at 0.8%. The market has $22.4K in total volume and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| <275mm | 98.2% | +0.6 pts | $15.8K |
| 375-400mm | 1.4% | +0.1 pts | $493 |
| 550mm+ | 0.8% | +0.4 pts | $1.2K |
| 450-500mm | 0.8% | +0.1 pts | $514 |
| 400-450mm | 0.7% | -0.5 pts | $489 |
| 300-325mm | 0.6% | +0.1 pts | $1.6K |
| 275-300mm | 0.5% | -0.5 pts | $792 |
| 500-550mm | 0.4% | — | $512 |
| 350-375mm | 0.2% | — | $537 |
| 325-350mm | <0.1% | -0.5 pts | $480 |
Total volume $22.4K · 24h volume $2.2K · Liquidity $11.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ <275mm ■ 375-400mm ■ 550mm+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Science & Space odds · Weather odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is <275mm at 98.2%, followed by 375-400mm at 1.4%, 550mm+ at 0.8%. The market has $22.4K in total volume and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 8, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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