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Updated September 25, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: April 1, 2027
As of September 25, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Over 2.5 at 77%, followed by 2.25–2.5 at 18.5%, 2.0–2.25 at 2.5%. The market has $51.5K in total volume and $732 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 77% | -1.0 pts | $24.2K |
| 2.25–2.5 | 18.5% | — | $19.9K |
| 2.0–2.25 | 2.5% | — | $3.3K |
| 1.5–2.0 | 0.9% | -0.1 pts | $2.7K |
| Under 1.5 | 0.2% | — | $1.5K |
Total volume $51.5K · 24h volume $732 · Liquidity $11.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Over 2.5 ■ 2.25–2.5 ■ 2.0–2.25 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.
This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "Over 2.5" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Science & Space odds · Weather odds
As of September 25, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Over 2.5 at 77%, followed by 2.25–2.5 at 18.5%, 2.0–2.25 at 2.5%. The market has $51.5K in total volume and $732 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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