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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: December 2, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 6.00 ft or more at 60%, followed by 4.00 to 4.99 ft at 15.2%, 5.00 to 5.99 ft at 12%. The market has $22.1K in total volume and $2.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.00 ft or more | 60% | +11.5 pts | $6.5K |
| 4.00 to 4.99 ft | 15.2% | -5.1 pts | $4.9K |
| 5.00 to 5.99 ft | 12% | -7.5 pts | $5.0K |
| 3.00 to 3.99 ft | 11% | -2.0 pts | $3.4K |
| Below 3.00 ft | 3.0% | — | $2.2K |
Total volume $22.1K · 24h volume $2.8K · Liquidity $7.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 6.00 ft or more ■ 4.00 to 4.99 ft ■ 5.00 to 5.99 ft · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, LA streamgage (USGS site 07374000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 00003 (daily mean).
The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports gage height to 2 decimal places, and this is the precision used to resolve this market. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4.00 ft resolves the range beginning at 4.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
The resolution source is the USGS Daily Values service for site 07374000, available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07374000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=00003&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 3.00 ft".
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 6.00 ft or more at 60%, followed by 4.00 to 4.99 ft at 15.2%, 5.00 to 5.99 ft at 12%. The market has $22.1K in total volume and $2.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 2, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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