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Updated October 12, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of October 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate at 31.4%, followed by Hormuz Agreement; R Senate at 4.2%. The market has $32.8K in total volume and $32.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate | 31.4% | — | $21.5K |
| Hormuz Agreement; R Senate | 4.2% | — | $11.3K |
Total volume $32.8K · 24h volume $32.8K · Liquidity $204.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate ■ Hormuz Agreement; R Senate · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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As of October 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate at 31.4%, followed by Hormuz Agreement; R Senate at 4.2%. The market has $32.8K in total volume and $32.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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