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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 26, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ruas 5-10% at 18%, followed by Ruas <5% at 12.5%, Ruas 20%+ at 11.2%. The market has $34.1K in total volume and $3.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ruas 5-10% | 18% | +5.0 pts | $7.5K |
| Ruas <5% | 12.5% | — | $6.3K |
| Ruas 20%+ | 11.2% | -5.0 pts | $3.6K |
| Ruas 15-20% | 7.6% | +1.9 pts | $6.1K |
| Ruas 10-15% | 6.5% | -0.5 pts | $10.3K |
| Paes wins | 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $336 |
Total volume $34.1K · 24h volume $3.4K · Liquidity $59.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Ruas 5-10% ■ Ruas <5% ■ Ruas 20%+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The second round of the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election as published by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ruas 5-10% at 18%, followed by Ruas <5% at 12.5%, Ruas 20%+ at 11.2%. The market has $34.1K in total volume and $3.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 26, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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