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Updated October 11, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 64%, followed by By October 15 at 40.5%. The market has $27.1K in total volume and $23.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31 | 64% | +46.5 pts | $12.8K |
| By October 15 | 40.5% | +31.0 pts | $14.3K |
Total volume $27.1K · 24h volume $23.1K · Liquidity $27.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 31 ■ By October 15 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if no flight departs from Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport (RUH) for a period of at least 24 consecutive hours, where that period begins between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Departures will be evaluated as displayed by FlightAware on its King Khalid Int'l Airport (Riyadh) RUH airport page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK) and the corresponding departures page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK/departures). Only confirmed departures, displayed with an actual departure time, qualify; scheduled departures do not qualify. Announcements, NOTAMs, airline cancellations, or reports that the airport is closed, suspended, or restricted will not qualify on their own if FlightAware displays departures.
A qualifying period may begin as late as the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, and end after it. If a period without departures has begun but has not reached 24 consecutive hours by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until either a flight departs RUH or 24 consecutive hours have elapsed. A qualifying closure counts regardless of its cause.
The resolution source for this market will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 64%, followed by By October 15 at 40.5%. The market has $27.1K in total volume and $23.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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