Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 5.3%, followed by By September 30, 2026 at 0.7%. The market has $6.23M in total volume and $72 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 5.3% | -0.1 pts | $120.2K |
| By September 30, 2026 | 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $160.0K |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $4.63M |
| By March 31, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $1.21M |
| By November 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $63.5K |
| By December 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $46.9K |
Total volume $6.23M · 24h volume $72 · Liquidity $35.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 ■ By September 30, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Russia–Ukraine War odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 5.3%, followed by By September 30, 2026 at 0.7%. The market has $6.23M in total volume and $72 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/russia-nuclear-test/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Russia nuclear test? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/russia-nuclear-test/">Russia nuclear test? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/russia-nuclear-test.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Russia nuclear test? — Polymarket odds”, September 23, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/russia-nuclear-test/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog