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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 69.5%, followed by By November 30 at 58%, By October 31 at 41.5%. The market has $812.7K in total volume and $25.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 69.5% | — | $294.2K |
| By November 30 | 58% | -1.5 pts | $23.3K |
| By October 31 | 41.5% | -4.5 pts | $53.5K |
| By October 15 | 25.5% | -1.5 pts | $41.3K |
| By September 30 | 3.3% | -0.1 pts | $381.7K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $18.7K |
Total volume $812.7K · 24h volume $25.3K · Liquidity $136.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By November 30 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 69.5%, followed by By November 30 at 58%, By October 31 at 41.5%. The market has $812.7K in total volume and $25.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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