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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 5, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 16:13 UTC, the leading outcome is Guilherme Derrite at 80%, followed by Simone Tebet at 8.0%, Marina Silva at 6.0%. The market has $54.6K in total volume and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guilherme Derrite | 80% | +1.0 pts | $36.1K |
| Simone Tebet | 8.0% | -0.9 pts | $2.7K |
| Marina Silva | 6.0% | — | $5.6K |
| André do Prado | 5.3% | -0.1 pts | $2.8K |
| Salles | 1.1% | -0.1 pts | $2.6K |
| Ednelson Cesaretti | <0.1% | — | $737 |
| William Teixeira | <0.1% | — | $733 |
| Dra. Eliana Ferreira | <0.1% | — | $613 |
| Marcio Alves | <0.1% | — | $552 |
| Geraldo Rufino | <0.1% | — | $480 |
| Soninha Francine | <0.1% | — | $474 |
| Petter Maahs | <0.1% | — | $419 |
| Maíra de Souza | <0.1% | — | $396 |
| Weller Gonçalves | <0.1% | — | $383 |
Total volume $54.6K · 24h volume $2.2K · Liquidity $141.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Guilherme Derrite ■ Simone Tebet ■ Marina Silva · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 16:13 UTC, the leading outcome is Guilherme Derrite at 80%, followed by Simone Tebet at 8.0%, Marina Silva at 6.0%. The market has $54.6K in total volume and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 5, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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