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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 1, 2026
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 77.1%, followed by By September 30 at 50%. The market has $1.29M in total volume and $170.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31 | 77.1% | -15.6 pts | $294.5K |
| By September 30 | 50% | -28.5 pts | $601.1K |
| By September 22 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.5 pts | $289.8K |
| By September 15 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.9 pts | $105.5K |
Total volume $1.29M · 24h volume $170.7K · Liquidity $125.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies.
Announcements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or may operate in the future, describe work underway to restore operation, or frame resumption as expected, planned, or conditional, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent contradictory statements, or alternative information from other sources.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Middle East odds · Oil & Commodities odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 77.1%, followed by By September 30 at 50%. The market has $1.29M in total volume and $170.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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