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Updated October 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 24, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 4.5%. The market has $59.3K in total volume and $2.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 4.5% | -8.0 pts | $15.0K |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $44.2K |
Total volume $59.3K · 24h volume $2.3K · Liquidity $297. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Canada odds · China & Taiwan odds · US Economy odds
As of October 24, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 4.5%. The market has $59.3K in total volume and $2.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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