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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 3, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is James Talarico (D) at 94.9%, followed by Ken Paxton (R) at 5.3%. The market has $25.2K in total volume and $96 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | 94.9% | -0.1 pts | $17.0K |
| Ken Paxton (R) | 5.3% | — | $8.2K |
Total volume $25.2K · 24h volume $96 · Liquidity $41.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ James Talarico (D) ■ Ken Paxton (R) · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is James Talarico (D) at 94.9%, followed by Ken Paxton (R) at 5.3%. The market has $25.2K in total volume and $96 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 3, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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