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Updated October 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 23, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 99.9%+, followed by By November 30 at 99.9%+. The market has $23.5K in total volume and $13.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31 | 99.9%+ | +49.5 pts | $15.6K |
| By November 30 | 99.9%+ | +16.0 pts | $5.8K |
| By October 15 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $2.0K |
Total volume $23.5K · 24h volume $13.2K · Liquidity $29.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 31 ■ By November 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components.
Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe will not count.
The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Science & Space odds · Politics odds · Pop Culture odds
As of October 23, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 99.9%+, followed by By November 30 at 99.9%+. The market has $23.5K in total volume and $13.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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