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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 3.0%. The market has $117.8K in total volume and $579 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 3.0% | -2.6 pts | $33.5K |
| December 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $84.3K |
Total volume $117.8K · 24h volume $579 · Liquidity $739. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.
If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.
If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Crypto Regulation odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 3.0%. The market has $117.8K in total volume and $579 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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