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Trump renames AI by September 30? — Polymarket Odds

Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 1, 2026

As of September 23, 2026 at 18:01 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 25.5% (No 74.5%), with $150.9K traded in total and $100.5K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeProbability24h changeVolume
Yes25.5%
-15.0 pts$150.9K
No74.5%
+15.0 pts

Total volume $150.9K · 24h volume $100.5K · Liquidity $21.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.

30-day price history

0%25%50%75%100%Sep 21Sep 23

Yes No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that adopts a new official name for artificial intelligence, or directs a federal agency or the federal government to adopt one, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying action must replace or supersede "artificial intelligence" as the federal government's designation for the technology itself. Any replacement name qualifies, including "Superior Intelligence", "Extreme Intelligence", "Supreme Intelligence", or "Genius Intelligence"; the name chosen has no bearing on resolution. An order that directs an agency to adopt or implement such a name within a stated period qualifies.

Statements, speeches, interviews, press conferences, and social media posts, including polls posted to social media, do not count. Renaming a federal office, agency, program, task force, commission, or military service, such as an "AI Force", does not count unless the same action also renames the technology itself. Renaming a specific product, model, or private-sector system does not count. Incidental use of an alternative term in the text of an order, without a directive adopting it as the official designation, does not count.

The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Trump renames AI by September 30?

As of September 23, 2026 at 18:01 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 25.5% (No 74.5%), with $150.9K traded in total and $100.5K in the last 24 hours.

When does the Trump renames AI by September 30 market end?

The event's listed end date is October 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.

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