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Updated September 26, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 26, 2026 at 02:04 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 5.2% (No 94.8%), with $100.7K traded in total and $653 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.2% | +0.2 pts | $100.7K |
| No | 94.8% | -0.2 pts | — |
Total volume $100.7K · 24h volume $653 · Liquidity $28.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration publicly announces that the United States will officially refer to the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" or any equivalent name which includes "Trump" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Iran odds · Strait of Hormuz odds · Politics odds
As of September 26, 2026 at 02:04 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 5.2% (No 94.8%), with $100.7K traded in total and $653 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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