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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: February 13, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 1.6%. The market has $2.50M in total volume and $345 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 1.6% | — | $238.1K |
| By December 31, 2025 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $1.59M |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $671.9K |
Total volume $2.50M · 24h volume $345 · Liquidity $11.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 1.6%. The market has $2.50M in total volume and $345 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is February 13, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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