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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 32%, followed by By June 30, 2027 at 12%, By December 31, 2026 at 3.8%. The market has $77.9K in total volume and $415 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2027 | 32% | — | $557 |
| By June 30, 2027 | 12% | +4.5 pts | $2.8K |
| By December 31, 2026 | 3.8% | -0.1 pts | $74.5K |
Total volume $77.9K · 24h volume $415 · Liquidity $23.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2027 ■ By June 30, 2027 ■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Russia–Ukraine War odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 32%, followed by By June 30, 2027 at 12%, By December 31, 2026 at 3.8%. The market has $77.9K in total volume and $415 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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