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Updated October 11, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 41% (No 59%), with $66.8K traded in total and $66.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 41% | +6.0 pts | $66.8K |
| No | 59% | -6.0 pts | — |
Total volume $66.8K · 24h volume $66.8K · Liquidity $15.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin.
Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify.
To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 41% (No 59%), with $66.8K traded in total and $66.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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