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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 5.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.2%. The market has $29.47M in total volume and $231 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 5.5% | — | $2.37M |
| By September 30 | 0.2% | — | $174.1K |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | +0.1 pts | $20.54M |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $4.50M |
| By April 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $1.16M |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $655.5K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $65.8K |
Total volume $29.47M · 24h volume $231 · Liquidity $162.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Iran odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 5.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.2%. The market has $29.47M in total volume and $231 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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