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Updated October 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 24, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 3.6% (No 96.4%), with $183.0K traded in total and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.6% | +0.9 pts | $183.0K |
| No | 96.4% | -0.9 pts | — |
Total volume $183.0K · 24h volume $2.2K · Liquidity $24.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Venezuela odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 24, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 3.6% (No 96.4%), with $183.0K traded in total and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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